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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It often serves as a kind of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround receives the award. However, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or just the biggest surprise.

However this year's field is distinctly unique. The pool of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime underperformers improving collectively. During an typical season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's facing several other elite coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a typical year!

Where his case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a given after his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still